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Covid Vaccine

Posted by PC, MD 
Covid Vaccine
December 21, 2020 12:59AM
This post is informational only.
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine
NEJM article on Covid vaccine
The Pfizer Covid 19 vaccine results were reported in the New England Journal of Medicine as 95% effective. This is relative benefit not absolute benefit.
There were 40,000 volunteers in the study, ~20,000 receive the vaccine and ~20,000 received the placebo.
In the placebo arm 162 volunteers developed signs and symptoms of COVID-19 and tested positive. In the vaccine arm this number was eight.
Of the 162 in the placebo group nine were considered severe. Of the eight in the vaccine group one was considered severe. No one in either arm died. There was no mention of hospitalization in those with severe disease in the NEJM article.
162/20,000 = 0.81% Placebo arm
8/20,000 = 0.04% vaccine arm
0.04/.81 = ~5% => ~95% efficacy or effectiveness = relative benefit
0.81%-0.04 = less than 1% absolute benefit
The difference between relative benefit and absolute benefit is best expressed by NNT or number needed to treat to prevent one case.
162/8 = ~20 = NNT.
To put this in perspective, the NNT for flu shot on average is at least 40.
The NNT for vitamin D during the winter is about 4.
Of course vitamin D is effective not only for COVID-19 AND the flu but also any viral respiratory illness.
Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data (meta-analysis of 15 studies published in 2017)

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 12/22/2020 03:58PM by PC, MD.
Re: Covid Vaccine
December 21, 2020 03:13AM
Hmm, my last 25 OHD test (in Nov) was 87 & I hadn't taken any D in a while as I think it is causing constipation. I can (and did a week ago) easily fast for 5 or more days, weigh what I did in Grade 10, but am likely more lean (my skinfold thickness an inch above my hip is 3mm), but am fit and do inverted pull ups on my rings, as well as workouts to failure with my KAATSU bands on. My BP now runs around 106/56 without meds. A long haul (COVID) afibber of 5 months duration started melatonin at my suggestion, 50 mg/day and it fixed his symptoms (I take >300 mg/day). I have all the stuff that Liz's Doc Brownstein uses on his COVID and other respiratory patients, including an ozone generator and nebulizer. I have the meds you suggested last spring, PC. As well, I have Ivermectin arriving in a few days. I take >3.6 g of Mg++/day. I can do 2 1/2 minute exhaled (Wim Hof) breath holds. I can hike up to a climbing are on a steep trail at 7,500' with a 60# pack, nasal breathing the whole way.

I wonder if I'll take the vaccine when offered?

My adult son is nearly 40 months past diagnosis with glioblastoma (original life expectancy was given 12-18 months) and I do help with caregiving. His immune system is trashed, so not getting COVID and passing it on would be a good thing. I'll have a few months to ponder since I'm 65 and not first in line.
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