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Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener
Posted by tobherd
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 01:00PM |
Registered: 9 years ago Posts: 182 |
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colindo
Safib, you assume an ablation is an option for all of us.
I also dont believe your stroke risk goes up yearly, and thats my opinion. Which used to be allowed on this forum.
It is not that your annual stroke risk goes up, it's that your cumulative stroke risk goes up (cumulative meaning your risk over a period of several years). The simplest model to explain this is coin flipping with a fair coin. The probability of getting a head in one flip is 0.5. For n flips it is 1 - (1 - 0.5)^n. So the probability of getting a head in n = 2 flips is 0.75 , and the probability of getting a head in n = 10 flips is .999. If you employ the same model for stroke, where the annual stroke risk is 2%, then the cumulative stroke risk is 18.3% over 10 years. Now there are issues with the model, but it is a good choice lacking long term longitudinal data . Better models would account for some fine tuning to allow for stroke incidence occurring continuously rather than once per year, or time variation of the stroke risk, or dependency of stroke events (having one stroke would make it more likely to have another). But it wouldn't change the results much. This isn't opinion, cumulative risks go up with time and models like this are well-validated.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/15/2019 01:01PM by safib.
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 01:13PM |
Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 551 |
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safib
Safib, you assume an ablation is an option for all of us.
I also dont believe your stroke risk goes up yearly, and thats my opinion. Which used to be allowed on this forum.
It is not that your annual stroke risk goes up, it's that your cumulative stroke risk goes up (cumulative meaning your risk over a period of several years). The simplest model to explain this is coin flipping with a fair coin. The probability of getting a head in one flip is 0.5. For n flips it is 1 - (1 - 0.5)^n. So the probability of getting a head in n = 2 flips is 0.75 , and the probability of getting a head in n = 10 flips is .999. If you employ the same model for stroke, where the annual stroke risk is 2%, then the cumulative stroke risk is 18.3% over 10 years. Now there are issues with the model, but it is a good choice lacking long term longitudinal data . Better models would account for some fine tuning to allow for stroke incidence occurring continuously rather than once per year, or time variation of the stroke risk, or dependency of stroke events (having one stroke would make it more likely to have another). But it wouldn't change the results much. This isn't opinion, cumulative risks go up with time and models like this are well-validated.
And I ask why, why is my stroke risk after 10 years now 18.3%, what has caused that.? Is it my lifestyle, maybe?
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 02:32PM |
Admin Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 5,328 |
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colindo
And I ask why, why is my stroke risk after 10 years now 18.3%, what has caused that.? Is it my lifestyle, maybe?
Your risk didn't change. What happened is math.
Stroke risk is usually stated as risk per year. So if your risk of having a stroke in one year is 2%, over the course of 10 years you incur that 2% risk 10 times. As safib explained, that risk adds up. It's not 20% because it's not simple addition, but it does add up. The answer is the risk is 18.3% that you'll have at least one stroke in a 10 year period.
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 03:11PM |
Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 551 |
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Carey
And I ask why, why is my stroke risk after 10 years now 18.3%, what has caused that.? Is it my lifestyle, maybe?
Your risk didn't change. What happened is math.
Stroke risk is usually stated as risk per year. So if your risk of having a stroke in one year is 2%, over the course of 10 years you incur that 2% risk 10 times. As safib explained, that risk adds up. It's not 20% because it's not simple addition, but it does add up. The answer is the risk is 18.3% that you'll have at least one stroke in a 10 year period.
Will blood thinners stop that one stroke in 10 years?
As I said my sister is now in hospital with a stroke after being on thinners for 12 months, that is in fact true.
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 03:14PM |
Registered: 10 years ago Posts: 1,748 |
Sure, the longer I live the more apt I am to get some kind of disease, the more I drive my car the more chance of getting in an accident, don't know the percentages of that but it is there. We can go on and on with this kind of maybe, perhaps. Also, I would say the longer one would be on a blood thinner the more a chance of getting a bleed, there are also numerous reports of getting a stroke while on the med., does that go up percentage wise the longer one is on the blood thinner? My mother was on Coumadin for about 6 years, she had to stop as she had internal bleeding.
Liz
Liz
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 03:26PM |
Registered: 10 years ago Posts: 1,748 |
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 05:06PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 1,102 |
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colindo
And I ask why, why is my stroke risk after 10 years now 18.3%, what has caused that.? Is it my lifestyle, maybe?
It isn’t 18.3% AFTER 10 years. It’s 18.3% OVER 10 years. Your just looking at a 10-year window as opposed to a 1-year window.
It’s that whole “lies, damn lies, and statistics” thing.
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 05:19PM |
Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 551 |
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener February 15, 2019 06:20PM |
Admin Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 5,328 |
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colindo
Will blood thinners stop that one stroke in 10 years?
As I said my sister is now in hospital with a stroke after being on thinners for 12 months, that is in fact true.
No drug is perfect and anticoagulants don't prevent 100% of all strokes. Nothing does. So asking if they will stop that one stroke in 10 years isn't really a valid question. The question is will they reduce the chances of having that one stroke and the answer is yes.
Sorry about your sister. It's worth noting that strokes that occur while taking anticoagulants are very often due to poor compliance. You know, you get busy or you're traveling or your normal schedules are disrupted and you miss a dose, or two, or three. I've heard stories of people forgetting to take their anticoagulants for weeks.
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener March 04, 2019 04:26PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 523 |
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Carey
do i NEED to take this for a YEAR (at least?)
What's your afib situation? Are you having episodes? If not, when was the last one? You say you're a CHADs-Vasc 1, so that means anticoagulants are a judgement call. The biggest factor in that decision is going to be afib activity.
The other question is how long do you expect to need ibuprofen? It's not that ibuprofen is completely contraindicated; it's just that it shouldn't be taken with anticoagulants long term. I've been told by two EPs that taking it for a few days is okay, but a few weeks is not.
And, really, if it's not going to be long term, I'd go for the Norco. You won't become addicted in a few days or even weeks, and with kidney stones you might need a lot more than ibuprofen. I've seen people passing kidney stones who were in horrible pain even with morphine.
Thanks for this ... i am going to ask about taking ibuprofen.. turns out the kidney stone was not. I was SURE it was b/c it was the same pain starting as before. It now makes me wonder if i really had to have the giant bolder removed 3 years ago.. but i had a CT and that is not the issue. I do have skeletal issues though.. and the ibuprofen would help. I am NOT having episodes. I had 3 episodes from T-giving to new year and ended up a week in hospital to get on tykosin so i'm on that and xeralto and have been doing well. (I was taking metrop but that did not work well for me.) I am now just trying to understand if i truly need to be on xeralto or can i just take it if i go into a-fib..and how to get off the xeralto. (I just wrote out another thread for that one. ) thanks for taking the time to answer. i was off for a bit dealing with this other pain but trying to understand the blood thinner thing now better.
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Re: Now I am really afraid to stay on Eliquis....today was an eye opener March 15, 2019 07:38AM |
Registered: 5 years ago Posts: 8 |
There is a refersal Agent for Eliquis but dont recall name right now BUT how many hospitals, other than mAybe larger medical centers have it? Hopefully soon it will be available worldwide but wont be awhile. My gosh we cant even get enough supply of Shringrix so what makes us think that is coming anytime soon.
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